Keith Markman. You could push the paramedic out of the way and do the CPR yourself, but you’ll likely do a worse job. Outcome Controllability and Counterfactual Thinking - Neal ... Research reveals that whether we engage in upward or downward counterfactual thinking depends most upon asked Apr 30, 2020 in Psychology by ecz923 social-and-applied-psychology 2015 Aug;97(2):93-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ijpsycho.2015.04.016. Self-Handicapping, Excuse Making, and Counterfactual ... The same person who wound up in the car accident might also conversely lament over whether they would have died if not for their vehicle's built-in airbag; this would be a downward counterfactual. Upward counterfactual thinking is the thoughts of identification on how an outcome could have been better, and are strongly evoked by difficulties that arise during goal pursuit. This meta-analysis examined the strength of association between upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms. Answer: Counterfactual thinking, which is something we are all guilty of to some degree, I would imagine, is the process of looking at something that has already occurred, usually something negative, and thinking about how it might have turned out if … The generation of alternative scenarios that are better than what actually happened is labeled upward counterfactual thinking, whereas the generation of alternative scenarios that are worse than what actually occurred is labeled downward counterfactual thinking Olson (Eds. Most previous studies have concentrated on the impact of depression on upward counterfactual thinking, inferring that depressive symptoms might be associated with stronger feelings of regret (Monroe et al., 2005). Now that we know that Counterfactual thinking is a common thought pattern that occurs with most of the human beings, we should understand that it chalks the line between an optimist and a pessimist. This paper. Upward Versus Downward Counterfactuals Much of the early work on counterfactual thinking focused on the consequences of upward versus downward counterfactuals. The exploration of counterfactuals has been initiated independently by One week later, they re-simulated self-generated upward, downward, and neutral counterfactual alternatives to those memories either once or four times. actuality ("upward counterfactuals") or worse than actuality ("downward coun terfactuals"). This research examines the effects of pre-counterfactual thinking and anticipated emotions on the amount of the first bid placed in Name-Your-Own-Price auctions. By Xue Feng, Ruolei Gu, Fucheng Liang, Lucas S. Broster, Yunzhe Liu, Dandan Zhang and Yue-jia Luo. ... a. counterfactual thinking b. ability discrimination c. social comparison d. cooperative analysis Researchers interested in counterfactual thinking have often found that upward counterfactual thoughts lead to increased motivation to improve in the future, although at the cost of increased negative affect. In Study 1 (N = 634), factor analysis revealed four subscales that correspond with various types of counterfactual thinking: Nonreferent Downward, Other-Referent Upward, Self-Referent Upward, and Nonreferent Upward. However, the current study indicates that levels of depression are related to both upward and downward counterfactual thinking. The majority of research on counterfactual thinking has been organized around understanding how a past outcome might have turned out better (upward counterfactual) versus might have turned out worse (downward counterfactual), but some studies have drawn on theorizing on regulatory focus to begin to move beyond a simple upward–downward dichotomy. Procrastination and counterfactual thinking: Avoiding what might have been. 37 … All schemas serve similar functions — they all influence the encoding (taking in and interpretation) of new information, memory for old information and inferences about missing information. However, they felt better when they used downward counterfactual thinking. ), What might have been: Social psychological perspectives on counterfactual thinking (pp. Counterfactual Thinking Counterfactual thinking1-3 is defined as thoughts about what might have been or alternatives to reality. Depressive states amplify both upward and downward counterfactual thinking . A growing body of research suggests that counterfactual thinking after traumatic events is associated with post-traumatic stress reactions. ... 2010) or relief if we realize that our current life could be worse; respectively making an upward comparison for the former and a downward comparison for the latter). Upward counterfactuals bring to mind possible worlds that are better than reality. Counterfactual Thinking. Functional theory. Counterfactuals serve a preparative function, and help people avoid past blunders. Counterfactual thinking also serves the affective function to make a person feel better. By comparing one's present outcome to a less desirable outcome, the person may feel better about the current situation (1995). The results of Study 1 indicate that upward counterfactuals are elicited more than downward counterfactuals in response to both accepted and rejected bids. Past research has found that downward counterfactual thoughts are rarely generated in response to negative life events. Examples of counterfactual thinking. Thus, upward counterfactual thoughts can lead to more negative affect, whereas downward counterfactual thoughts can lead to maintained or more positive affect optimism, upward and downward counterfactual thinking toward persistence among student competitors. If you provided a worse alternative, it’s a downward counterfactual. Forty-two effect sizes from a … When something bad happens, it seems almost inevitable that people … When people think about positive possible outcome but have low self-efficacy, it causes they to feel worse. Measuring attitudes helps investigators make inferences about the attitudes that may be responsible for certain behaviors. These reflections are called downward counterfactual thinking.. In both studies, self-efficacy was manipulated by false feedback after performing an anagram task. The counterfactual thoughts for silver medalists tend to focus on how close they are to the gold medal, upward counterfactually thinking about the event, whereas bronze medalists tend to counterfactual think about how they could have not received a medal at all, displaying downward counterfactual thinking. It is also possible to engage in downward counterfactual thinking, that is, simulating how a successful consumption episode could have been less successful. Jessica Gamlin changed the title from Counterfactual Direction of Comparison to Dispositional optimism weakly predicts upward, rather than downward, counterfactual thinking: A prospective correlational study using episodic recall The depressed and nondepressed groups did not differ in their focus on the self or other within their counterfactual thoughts in response to a positive or negative eventAlso, no differences between the depressed and nondepressed groups use of upward and downward counterfactual thoughts were found. 4.2.4.6. Counterfactual thinking in the courtroom Counterfactual thinking can play a role in jury decision-making. Accordingly, the study did not analyze the We examined whether inducing cigarette smokers to engage in counterfactual thinking would change their intentions to quit smoking and their short-term smoking behavior. Ambiguities surround a series of past studies in which optimism predicted relatively greater downward counterfactual thinking. This paper. However, the authors suggest that under conditions in which self-enhancement motives are prominent, downward counterfactuals will be more frequent than upward counterfactuals. In counterfactual thinking, it is useful to differentiate two directions: Upward counterfactuals imagine a more positive outcome, and downward counterfactuals a more negative outcome. A subset of the counterfactual literature (comprising nine studies in six papers [6–11]; see S1 Appendix) has examined the relationship between dispositional optimism and counterfactual direction of comparison, finding that optimism predicts downward (vs. upward) counterfactual thinking. You just studied 18 terms! Within a few short years, research on counterfactual thinking has mushroomed, establishing itself as one of the signature domains within social psychology. An upward counterfactual (as opposed to a downward counterfactual) is generated when people imagine better (rather than worse) alternative states, such as having made the right choices, successfully avoiding a tragedy, or achieving a better version of oneself (Epstude and Roese, 2008, Markman and McMullen, 2003). ••• Tag them to make sure they apply…” The finding that people can boost their own self-evaluations by using downward comparison is known as what effect? on counterfactual thinking has found that individuals often compare counterfactual alternatives to reality, leading to an affective contrast effect (Markman & McMullen, 2003; McMullen, 1997). > Not unless you do something like Singapore, which sells their affordable housing, permitting individual purchasers to leverage private market financing. Living in Neither the Best Nor Worst of All Possible Worlds: Antecedents and Consequences of Upward and Downward Counterfactual Thinking. However, they felt better when they used downward counterfactual thinking. Upward Counterfactual Thinking Clip: Modern Family "Airport 2010". The name “counterfactual thinking” may sound a bit complicated, but in reality, as you will see in the example below, it is a simple concept to understand. A short summary of this paper. 37 … The subscales were largely orthogonal and had adequate internal consistency and test-retest reliability. “Downward” – This clip shows Downward Counterfactual Thinking because if Cam and Mitchell had not adopted the baby; she would have grown up in a crowded orphanage. (Epstude & Roese, 2008). Counterfactual thinking (CFT), that is thinking about what might have happened, is linked to post‐traumatic stress. counterfactual thinking (e.g., Kahneman & Miller, 1986). Our main study (N = 1150) and six supplementary studies (N = 1901) re-examined this link to reveal a different result, a weak relation between optimism and upward (rather than downward) counterfactual thinking. When people think about positive possible outcome but have low self-efficacy, it causes they to feel worse. Nice work! The study also finds a positive relationship between upward counterfactual thinking and turnover intent and between downward counterfactual thinking and organizational commitment. Our studies focus on upward counterfactual thinking, that is, how consumers simulate better outcomes in response to scenarios involving negative outcomes. A positive correlation was found between upward counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias effect (r= … Downward counterfactual thinking may serve the function of enhancing coping and feelings of relative … She loves sports and is very competitive. Upward counterfactual thinking is a variation of counterfactual thinking that can be contrasted with downward counterfactual thinking. Initial work suggested a trade-off: when people make downward comparisons in order to improve affect (e.g., "at least I didn't fail the test"), they sacrifice their motivation to improve. An upward counterfactual (as opposed to a downward counterfactual) is generated when people imagine better (rather than worse) alternative states, such as having made the right choices, successfully avoiding a tragedy, or achieving a better version of oneself (Epstude and Roese, 2008, Markman and McMullen, 2003). Downward counterfactual thinking is the opposite of upward counterfactual thinking, in so far that it involves imagining how life could be worse had we not made the decisions we did in the past e.g. We studied the relationship between type and frequency of CFT and post‐traumatic stress in a sample of directly (n = 50) and indirectly exposed (n = 50) ministerial employees 4 years after the 2011 Oslo bombing. by thinking downward counterfactuals (Sanna, 2000). A growing body of research has focused on the affective and behavioral consequences of counterfactual thinking, and the benefits that may derive from differences in counterfactual direction. Various studies have found that downward counterfactual thinking tends to be more associated with psychological health compared with upward counterfactual thinking (see McMullen & Markham, 2000). Although downward counterfactuals are generated less frequently PLOS ONE Dispositional optimism weakly predicts upward, rather than … Download Full PDF Package. According to a 2000 study, downward counterfactual thinking can be linked with better psychological health compared to upward counterfactual thinking. ACADEMIA Letters The Effects of Upward and Downward Counterfactual Thinking in Relation to Sexual Assault and the Loss of a Loved One due to Kidnapping Cynthia Xu Peter Anto Johnson John Christy Johnson Angela Kazmierczak Austin Mardon Introduction Whether people notice it or not, counterfactual thinking is a regular phenomenon that occurs in our everyday lives. Both direction and structure influenced performance on an anagram task such that upward and additive (vs. downward and subtractive) counterfactuals engendered greater improvement. Counterfactual thoughts are also categorized by their direction, 133-167). The counterfactual thoughts for silver medalists tend to focus on how close they are to the gold medal, upward counterfactually thinking about the event, whereas bronze medalists tend to counterfactual think about how they could have not received a medal at all, displaying downward counterfactual thinking. Psychologists are interested in counterfactual thinking because they seem to be intimately related to emotion, social perception, and self understanding. Counterfactuals are thoughts of what might have been, of possible past outcomes that could have taken place. - Upward and downward Causal inference - Judgemental consequences - Affective consequences - Intention and behavioural consequences. ... (making more downward and relatively fewer upward counterfactuals) in response to the two anxiety‐provoking scenarios, suggesting the involvement of a self‐enhancement motive (mood repair). Attitude survey is the most commonly used technique for measuring attitudes. Researchers often distinguish between upward versus downward counterfactuals (e.g., Markman, Gavanski, Sherman, & McMullen, 1993& Roese, 1994, 1997& Sirois, 2004). Keith Markman. 5,7 In this same example, that might involve thinking about what could have happened had there been more people in the car with Mr. Jones, or if the accident had turned into a multi-vehicle pile-up that caused even more injury and suffering. These thoughts are usually triggered by negative events that block one’s goals and desires. Participants read a hypothetical scenario describing a doctor visit, and then generated either upward or downward, additive or subtractive counterfactuals. An upward counterfactual (as opposed to a downward counterfactual) is generated when people imagine better (rather than worse) alternative states, such as having made the right choices, successfully avoiding a tragedy, or achieving a better version of oneself (Epstude and Roese, 2008, Markman and McMullen, 2003). Ambiguities surround a series of past studies in which optimism predicted relatively greater downward counterfactual thinking. 199: Worldviews Counterfactual Thought and Emotion. If not for those “cream puffs”, the baby would have had a worse outcome. The counterfactual voting thought, and the reasons to vote questionnaire were the stimulus materials used to assess counterfactual thinking and voting decision respectively. The direction of counterfac-tual comparisons is one of several ingredients that illuminates counterfactual thinking in terms of its functional basis. in the counterfactual thinking literature with regard to downward counterfactual thinking about positive events. The upward state of this type of thinking is when we think at things that could have changed the outcome of an event in better. On the other side, the downward state focuses on the worse, specifically at how things could have been more serious than they were. Upward counterfactual and downward counterfactual thinking has both its pros and cons . Upward counterfactual thinking involves inflecting on how things could have turned out better. This meta-analysis examined the strength of association between upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms. The majority of research on counterfactual thinking has been organized around understanding how a past outcome might have turned out better (upward counterfactual) versus might have turned out worse (downward counterfactual), but some studies have drawn on theorizing on regulatory focus to begin to move beyond a simple upward–downward dichotomy. Here, the investigators provide a questionnaire or ask a series of questions on the telephone. Abstract. However, research on how these constructs relate been much worse (downward counterfactuals) but were not. These results indicate that depression strengthens both upward counterfactual thinking and downward counterfactual thinking. optimism, upward and downward counterfactual thinking toward persistence among student competitors. Living in neither the best nor worst of all possible worlds: Antecedents and consequences of upward and downward counterfactual thinking. The impact of outcome controllability on the direction of counterfactual thoughts (reconstructions of past outcomes based on "might have been"alternatives) was examined in two laboratory experiments. When individuals imagine that a better alternative (upward counterfactual) might have occurred, they will judge the factual outcome to be worse; but if they imagine that the alternative could have been worse (downward counterfactual), they will judge the factual outcome to be better. According to the authors, whether social comparison or counterfactual thinking result in positive or negative affect not only depends on the direction of comparison (upward or downward), but also on two modes of mental simulation (i.e., reflection or evaluation) that can be activated during comparative thinking.
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